A new scientific study has revealed that the potential collapse of the Gulf Stream system, a crucial part of the Earth’s climate, can no longer be considered an unlikely scenario. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), often referred to as the Gulf Stream, plays a vital role in transporting warm water from the southern hemisphere toward Europe and the Arctic, where it cools, sinks, and drives a deep return current. This circulation has not been weaker in the past 1,600 years, largely due to global warming and rising sea levels.
Earlier climate models suggested that a collapse before 2100 was improbable. However, the new research, using advanced simulations that project further into the future, shows that the tipping point, making the collapse inevitable, could be reached within a few decades. While the collapse itself might not occur until 50 to 100 years later, scientists warn that the risk is significantly higher than previously thought.
The findings indicate a 70% probability of collapse if carbon emissions continue to increase. Even if emissions remain at current levels, the risk remains at 37%. Should emissions be reduced in line with the Paris Agreement, there would still be a 25% chance of collapse, far higher than earlier estimates suggested.
The consequences of such an event would be severe. The tropical rainfall belt, on which millions depend for food production, could shift dramatically. Sea levels along parts of the North Atlantic coast could rise by an additional 50 centimeters on top of current projections. Winters in Western Europe could become much colder, while other regions of the world would face destabilized weather systems.
Scientists stress that preventing the collapse of the Gulf Stream must be treated as a global priority. The new findings underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting international climate targets to minimize the risks of irreversible change to the planet’s climate system.
What is the Gulf Stream and Why It Matters?
The Gulf Stream is a powerful ocean current that carries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the U.S. eastern coast, continuing across the Atlantic toward Europe and the Arctic. It plays a central role in moderating regional climates, keeping Florida milder in winter and Western Europe significantly warmer than other regions at the same latitude.
This formidable current is part of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre, one of the five major ocean gyres driven by wind patterns. As warm surface water moves north, it cools, sinks, and drives deep return currents vital to global circulation.
This system is essential for the global climate because:
- It keeps regions livable: Western Europe is much warmer than other areas at the same latitude thanks to the Gulf Stream, and Florida has milder winters.
- It drives global weather systems: The current helps distribute heat and moisture around the planet, shaping rainfall patterns in the tropics and beyond.
- It regulates the oceans: As the warm water flows north, it cools, sinks, and helps power deep-ocean circulation, part of a “global conveyor belt” that moves water and nutrients across the world’s seas.
- It affects sea levels: A slowdown or collapse would raise sea levels along the U.S. East Coast and elsewhere.
In short, the Gulf Stream is one of Earth’s most important climate regulators. If it weakens or collapses, the effects would ripple worldwide—from harsher winters in Europe to shifts in tropical rainfall that threaten food security for millions.
Source: Mbl.is, Guardian, NOAA
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