An interesting paper about three priority threats facing the Arctic and how to address them, written by Marisol Maddox and Lyston Lea published in newsletter no. 13 Polar Perspectives from the Wilson Center / Polar Institute.
"Climate change is accelerating and significant changes are occurring at relatively low levels of warming. The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere on Earth, with tremendous implications for U.S. homeland and national security, as well as U.S. security interests abroad. Future conditions are not well-represented by past experiences so it is important for the U.S. intelligence community (IC) to evolve to meet the demands of this new reality. This includes creating an holistic approach towards the Arctic region, as well as several other targeted, structural interventions pertaining to Arctic engagement and equities. This natural evolution will allow the IC to provide more robust, agile, and comprehensive support to policymakers and the military; properly reflecting the period of unprecedented complexity and consequence we are now within.
Three priority threats face the United States and its allies in the Arctic region: accelerating climate change, Russia, and China. The contemporary environment in which actorless and actor-based threats interact with each other in novel ways requires a fundamental rethink of the U.S. intelligence community’s approach to a significantly altered Arctic region, so as to provide accurate and timely insights and analysis. The 2022 National Security Strategy asserts that climate threats are “at the center of shaping U.S. security in the decades to come.”
Three key questions emerge from these priority threats: How will Arctic change impact U.S. security interests at home and abroad? What are the key threats posed by Russia and how are they best addressed? How do China’s Arctic interests play into their larger intentions and ambitions? This paper briefly explains these critical threats and questions, and then offers six targeted recommendations to better address their intersections in the evolving, contemporary environment."
Source: Wilson Center