The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) has released the 2016 Post-Season Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Report, now available online.
This post-season report was developed by the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook Action Team, which convened mid-October though December 2016, and the Sea Ice Prediction Network Leadership Team. The Action Team was led by SIPN Leadership Team member Cecila Bitz and convened and supported by ARCUS.
The organizers would like to thank the groups and individuals that contributed to the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook. There were a total of 104 submissions of pan-Arctic September sea ice extent forecasts, with 30 in June, 35 in July, and 39 in August (a record number of contributions). This year for the first time organizers also collected forecasts of the extent in the combined Chukchi, Bering, and Beaufort seas, which they refer to as the "Alaskan Region."
The report includes a review of the 2016 Arctic summer conditions, a review of the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook contributions, as well as discussions of the statistical methods, dynamical models, methods of forecast initialization by dynamical models, local-scale analysis of 2016 Sea Ice Outlooks, local use and observations of the sea ice forecasts, probabilistic assessment of the 2008-2016 Outlooks, and lessons learned in 2016 and recommendations for future efforts.
SIO is an activity within the SIPN project as a contribution to the Study of Environmental Arctic Change that provides an open forum for researchers and others to develop, share, and discuss seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions.